Despite unprecedented rate hikes up to 450 basis points over the last 12 months the Euro has lost ground to the US Dollar for the last nine straight weeks. As a result, the Eurozone interest rates are historical highs.
Currencies desire nothing more than higher rates. The Euro should have popped but instead it flopped after the ECB’s rate hiking decision last Thursday. That says something about the underlying economy and the expectations for interest rates ahead.
This note puts forth data backed arguments that macroeconomic fundamentals in Europe is visibly weak. In sharp contrast, the robust economic fundamentals in the US provide strong tailwinds to the US dollar.
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